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「國外因素是導致1930年代軍國主義在日本上台的最主要因素。」評論此說能否成立。
背景 軍國主義於1930年代在日本上台，終結了政黨政治時期，更引領日本走向第二次世界大戰。 // 立場探究其取得上台的原因，國外因素較國內因素更為重要，是導致軍國主義上台的主因，故題目所言確能成立。 // 架構以下將從西方對日本的針對及排拆、中國的局勢變動和同期極權主義的發展三方面先探討國外因素如何導致軍國主義上台。
主旨句 西方對日本的針對及排拆是導致日本軍國主義上台的主因。 // 主項重要性二十世紀初，「黃禍」的思想於歐、美地區彌漫，認為黃種人有威脅歐美帝國霸權的潛力，因此作為黃種人的日本也受到西方的針對及疏離，如美國於1924年通過《排外法案》，禁止日本在內的黃種人移民到美國。此外，在華盛頓會議(1921-22年)及倫敦海軍會議(1930年)中，列強更壓抑日本的勢力，如華盛頓會議中迫使日本交代原本在中國山東的勢力範圍；倫敦會議中限制日本的大型巡洋艦與美、英的比例至10：10：6，因此令日人於1920年代起產生強烈的仇外情緒，更支持軍方的對外擴張行動，如九一八事變(1931年)等，希望藉對外擴張而挽回民族光榮，致使軍國主義者在取得人民支持下上台。 // 小結可見，西方對日本的針對有助日本軍國主義的上台。
中國的局勢變動也是導致日本軍國主義上台的要因。隨著中國在1926年開展北伐，逐步統一中國，因此令日本在中國的利益受到挑戰。中國的局勢發展一方面刺激了軍方的行動，擅自策略事件以擴大在中國的利益，如1928年日本關東軍炸死奉系軍閥領袖張作霖，以進一步侵略中國東北。另一方面，由於政黨政府在對華態度上過於軟弱，如首相犬養毅反對「滿洲國」的成立，故挑起了極端民族主義組織的不滿，最終釀成「五一五事件」，犬養毅於1932年被血盟團所刺殺。事後，政黨政治漸趨衰落，軍方反而大行其道，至二次大戰結束前，首相之職大多由軍人所出任。可見，中國的局勢變動也大大助長了軍國主義者的上台。
同期極權主義的發展也刺激了日本軍國主義的盛行，使之上台。一次大戰後，極權主義在惡劣的經濟及社會環境下迅速滋長，法西斯主義的墨索里尼早於1922年已經上台，及後，至1933年納粹主義的希特拉也取得政權。這些極權主義者上台後積極鞏固權力，強化一黨專政、獨裁統治的體系也成為日本軍國主義者模仿的對象，如1936年二二六事變後，日本重新恢復「軍部大臣現役武官制」，使內閣再次受到軍方的箝制。更甚，至1940年，日本更成立「大政翼贊會」以取締其他政黨，仿傚意大利和德國等成立一黨專政的獨裁體制，使軍國主義在日本獲得絕對的支配性。可見，同期極權主義的發展對於日本軍國主義取得優勢也極具影響力。
雖然有其他因素，如政黨政治的腐敗、極端民族主義思想的興起對於軍國主義者得以上台有具重要性，但卻並非是主因。
主旨句 其一，政黨政治的腐敗對於軍國主義者得以上台的重要性不及國外因素。 // 他項重要性政黨政治執政時期過於貪腐，經常勾結財閥，藉此取得選舉經費以取得選舉勝利。同時，在經濟及外交議題上過於軟弱及無能，如未能有效解決銀行危機(1927年)及經濟大蕭條(1929年)等經濟危機，而且在華盛頓會議(1921-22年)及倫敦海軍會議(1930年)時也未能滿足日人及軍方的要求，因此令日人支持強硬的軍國主義者，使軍國主義於1930年代日本盛行及受到歡迎。 // 駁論然而，國外因素較政黨政治的腐敗更為重要。就因果關係而言，國外因素揭示了政黨政治的腐敗。因美、英等國在中國市場與日本的競爭，再加上經濟大蕭條所造成的重大打擊，令日本經濟陷入谷底，失業人數高達300萬人，成為政黨政府難以解決的難題。而且，政黨政府在華盛頓會議及倫敦會議中的弱勢表現因受到多國的壓抑所致，如英、美兩國在倫敦會議中共同限制日本大型巡洋艦的數量，才使政黨政府無力招架。 // 小結可見，國外因素才是導致軍國主義者上台的主因。
其二，極端民族主義思想的興起也是導致軍國主義上台的原因，但重要性不及國外因素。日本政府向人民強調國粹主義，對內灌輸國家至上的民族意識，對外主張拯救其他民族及為大和民族爭取光榮。因此，這種極端的民族思想逐漸誘發軍國主義思想及相關組織的出現，如黑龍會、血盟團等，此等團體更於1930年代與軍方共同策劃多次政變，如1932年的「五一五事件」則由血盟團所發動，終對政黨政府造成重大打擊，促使軍國主義者於1930年代上台。然而，國外因素更為重要。就因果關係而言，國外因素刺激起極端民族主義的滋長。因極端民族主義思想曾經於1910年代減弱，隨著原敬成為首位平民首相就象徵著政黨政治時期的開始，但由於列強對日本的針對性及壓抑性政策，惹起了日人的不滿，極端民族主義思想隨著不滿而再次興起，支持軍國主義者的對外擴張政策。可見，國外因素較極端民族主義思想的興起對於軍國主義者上台更為重要。
總括而言，在塑造日本軍國主義的發展一事上，國外因素較國內因素更為重要，是導致1930年代日本軍國主義者得以上台的最重要因素。
‘External factors were the most important reasons for the military takeover of the Japanese government in the 1930s.’ Comment on the validity of this statement.
Militarism rose in Japan in 1930, ending the party politics. Militarism even brought Japan to the WW2. To explore the reasons for the rise of militarism, external factors were more important than internal factors and external factors were even the primary factor. Hence, the statement is true. Discrimination from the west, changing circumstance of China and the development of totalitarianism in the same period were some external factors leading to the rise of militarism.
First, the discrimination of western countries against Japan was also a main factor leading to the rise of militarism in Japan in the 1930s. In the early 20th century, the idea of ‘yellow peril黃禍’ was so prevalent and widespread that the US, as well as the European countries, isolated and discriminated against the Japanese. For instance, the US passed the immigration act排外法案 in 1924, prohibiting Japanese from immigrating to the US. Moreover, during the Washington Conference華盛頓會議(1921-22) and the London Naval Conference倫敦海軍會議(1930), the West suppressed the Japanese by pressing them to return Shandong to china and limiting the heavy cruisers ration to US (10): Britain (10): Japan (6). A strong sense of dissatisfaction towards the west was thus developed, people therefore turned to the militarists in order that they might regain their national glory by supporting the foreign expansion such as the September 18th Incident九一八事變(1931). Thus, the discrimination from the west accounted for the rise of militarists in the 1930s.
Second, the changing situation of China also led to the rise of militarism in the 1930s. With the northern expedition of China in 1926, China embarked on the journey of the unification of China. This jeopardized the interests of Japan in China. On one hand, it stimulated the military actions of Japan’s militarists; on the other, it prompted the militarists to take actions on their own initiative rather than following the instructions of the party government, making it possible for the takeover of militarists. For example, in 1928, Zhang Zuolin張作霖, a military leader in China, was killed by the Kwan Tung Army in China. Japan thus expanded into the China. Furthermore, due to the weak attitude of the party towards China, like the Prime Minister, Inukai Tsuyoshi犬養毅. He objected to the proposal of Manchuria滿洲國, arousing discontent of some extreme militarists. At last, he was assassinated in the May 15th Incident五一五事件. Since then, party politics dwindled, militarists rose. Thus, it could be seen that the changing situation of China was the reason for the takeover of militarists in the 1930s.
Third, the development of totalitarianism in the same period in Italy and Germany stimulated militarism in the 1930s. After the WW1, totalitarianism soon developed with poor economic and social situation. Fascist Mussolini墨索里尼 and Nazi Hitler希特拉 even rose to the power in 1922 and 1933 respectively. These totalitarian regimes strengthened and consolidated their power once they rose to power, placing emphasis on one-party dictatorship一黨專政 and eventually, they became a role model for Japan’s militarists. After the February 26th Incident二二六事變 in 1936, Japan even restored the Military ministers to be Active Duty Officers Law軍部大臣現役武官制. The cabinet was controlled by the militarists again. Moreover, in 1940, Japan even set up the Imperial Rule Assistance Association大政翼贊會(IRAA) to replace other political parties. They even copied Italy and Germany to adopt one-party dictatorship. Militarism in Japan became a dominant power. Thus, the rise of totalitarianism in the same period in Italy and Germany led to the takeover of militarists in the 1930s.
There were also some other factors like the incompetence of the party government and the rise of extreme nationalism giving rise to militarism, but they were not as important as external factors. These factors were not the main factors.
First, the incompetence of the party government also led to the rise of the militarists but it was less important than the external factors. During the period of party politics, corruption of zaibatsu was common and widespread. The political parties colluded with the zaibatsu so as to gain the political donations and win the elections. Meanwhile, the inability to address the economic and diplomatic issues revealed and exposed the government’s weaknesses. For instance, it failed to solve the Bank Crisis銀行危機(1927) and the Great Depression經濟大蕭條(1929) and even succumbed to the west in Washington Conference華盛頓會議(1921-22) and the London Naval Conference倫敦海軍會議(1930), which resulted in the opposition of Japanese. Japanese supported the militarists as a result. However, external factors were more important. In terms of causality, the external factors revealed the corruption of party politics. Since it was the US and Britain which competed with Japan for the market in China, together with the Great Depression, the number of unemployed reached 3 million. This became the problem that the government failed to solve. In addition, the government showed its weaknesses in the London Naval Conference by accepting the limitations of Japan’s warships. Party government thus failed. Hence, external factor was the main factor for the rise of militarism.
Second, the rise of extreme nationalism also led to the rise of the militarists. Yet, it was less important than the external factors. Internally, Japan emphasized the ascendancy of the Yamato people and inculcated nationalism into Japanese. Externally, Japan put emphasis on national glory. Gradually, this ideology evolved into an extreme nationalism, contributing to the formation of some extreme nationalistic organizations like the Black Dragon Society黑龍會 and the Brotherhood Blood League血盟團. These organizations planned a number of assassinations, like the May 15th Incident五一五事件 by the Brotherhood Blood League in 1932, leading to the rise of militarists in 1930s. However, the external factors were more important since they led to the spread of extreme nationalism. Since extreme nationalism once weakened in the 1910s with the entry of party politics (Hara Kei原敬 became the first civilian appointed as the Prime Minister), it was the suppressing and discriminating policy from the west that caused the discontent of Japanese. Extreme nationalism rose with the dissatisfaction of Japanese. Japanese supported militarists who carried out foreign expansions. Thus, external factors were more important than the rise of extreme nationalism when it comes to the rise of militarism.
In conclusion, in contributing to the development of militarism, external factors were more important. Therefore, the statement is true and external factors were the most important factor.
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